Abstract: BACKGROUND: No studies focused on impact of temperature changes between neighboring days (TCN) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) hospital admissions among suburban farmers although CVD has been the main cause to global mortality and disability especially in undeveloped and developing countries/areas. METHOD: Daily data of CVD hospital admissions on suburban farmers and daily data of meteorology in Qingyang (China) were collected during 2011–2015. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to explore the exposure–response relations and lagged effects between TCN and CVD hospital admissions with stratified analyses by age and gender. Extreme low TCN effects and burden analysis were conducted. RESULTS: Based on 25,984 cases in Qingyang (China) during 2011–2015 among suburban farmers, we found that, first, nonlinear relationship was observed between TCN and CVD hospital admissions and adverse impact in negative TCN (temperature dropping between neighboring days) while protective effect in positive TCN (temperature rising between neighboring days) were discovered; third, during lag0–27, the cumulative relative risk (RR) for extreme low TCN (5th percentile, − 3.5 °C) and extreme high TCN (95th percentile, 3 °C) was 29.55 (95% CI 4.709–185.436) and 0.040 (95% CI 0.009–0.169), respectively; fourth, the age < 65 and females were more vulnerable to negative TCN than the age ≥ 65 and males among suburban farmers, respectively; last, moderate low TCN contributed the most fractions and numbers on CVD hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Among Qingyang suburban farmers in Northwest China, negative TCN should be paid more attention.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease hospital admission · Temperature changes between neighboring days · Suburban farmers · Climate change · Distributed lag non-linear model

基金资助：This work was supported by the Belt and Road Special Project of Lanzhou University (No.2018ldbryb026), the Key Project of China Ministry of Education for Philosophy and Social Science (No.16JZD023), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No.020jbkyzy037), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.81960049).

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-022-02271-9