Abstract: Deficiencies in cross-departmental coordination frequently lead to resource misallocation and critical delays, thereby undermining the overall reliability of earthquake emergency responses. To address the limitations of existing static models in capturing stochastic interagency dynamics, this study develops a formal analytical framework based on stochastic Petri nets. The framework conceptualizes "collaboration reliability" as the system’s capacity to sustain stable resource and information flows under disaster-induced stress. Using the Ms6.2 Jishishan earthquake in China as a validation case, the study reconstructs complex emergency response activities into structured SPN models encompassing four primary collaboration modes. A novel collaborative efficiency index is then introduced to integrate busy place probabilities and transition utilization rates, thereby quantifying the dynamic coupling between resource availability and task execution. Quantitative results reveal significant efficiency disparities across subsystems, identifying material transportation coordination as a critical operational bottleneck. Dynamic optimization further suggests ranges of optimal rates for critical activities: 0.2–0.3 events/hour for transport and rescue; 0.4–0.5 for casualty treatment, and 0.3–0.4 for road accessibility and emergency communications. These ranges ensure that critical tasks are performed at rates conducive to successful outcomes. Overall, the proposed framework offers a mathematically rigorous tool for diagnosing coordination failures and deriving data-driven strategies to enhance collaborative reliability in future seismic events.

Keywords: Stochastic petri nets; Cross-departmental collaboration; Collaboration reliability; Ms6.2 Jishishan Earthquake

原文链接： https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.112278