Abstract: As the significance of ecological protection escalates within the process of globalization, national parks have emerged as a pivotal component of such efforts. As a result, they have become a focal point for academic scrutiny regarding policy effectiveness. This research presents a comprehensive evaluation of China's national park policy effects by constructing a “natural-social-digital” triadic analysis framework. The framework is designed to assess policy impacts across three critical dimensions: environmental protection, socio-economic development, and digital governance.

Leveraging panel data encompassing the period from 2010 to 2022, this study delves into the temporal dynamics of policy implementation and its spatial implications across the initial cohort of five national parks in China. The assessment, which is based on the “natural-social-digital” triadic analysis framework, is multifaceted, extending beyond mere quantitative analysis to include quasi-experimental comparative evaluations. The study findings indicate that: (1) National park policy have effectively promoted the comprehensive development of the areas in the short term, but the sustainability of these effects needs improvement; (2) Policy effects vary regionally, with northern national parks generally outperforming southern ones; (3) The policy's impact on the social dimension is less pronounced compared to its impact on the natural and digital dimensions. Based on these findings, a series of policy implications are proposed to guide the optimization of future national park policy and enhance their long-term effectiveness. This research innovates the theoretical framework for evaluating the effects of national park policy and introduces a novel methodology for indicator selection, both of which advance national park management practices and foster the development of ecological protection.

Keywords: “Natural-social-digital” triadic analysis framework; Qualitative systematic review; National parks; Policy effect evaluation; Synthetic control method

基金资助：This research is supported by the National Social Science Fund of China (Grant No. 23BGL282).

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126400